Analysis of Egg Production Forecasting by Province in Indonesia Using the ARIMA Algorithm

Authors

  • Khaswa Giovani Simanungkalit STIKOM Tunas Bangsa Pematangsiantar
  • Muhammad Fikri Azhari STIKOM Tunas Bangsa Pematangsiantar
  • Muhammad ihsan Raditya STIKOM Tunas Bangsa Pematangsiantar
  • Indra Lesmana Putra STIKOM Tunas Bangsa Pematangsiantar
  • Victor Asido Elyakim P STIKOM Tunas Bangsa Pematangsiantar

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55123/jomlai.v4i1.5765

Keywords:

Chicken Egg Production , ARIMA , Forecasting , Time Series Data , Provincial Prediction

Abstract

The production of chicken eggs in various regions of Indonesia shows significant variations over time, making it necessary to apply an appropriate predictive approach to support national food planning and distribution strategies. This study employs the ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) method to forecast regional chicken egg production based on secondary data from 2018 to 2024. The research steps include data collection, stationarity testing, model parameter determination, as well as the modeling process and result evaluation. The predictions indicate that total national chicken egg production will experience a significant increase, from 12.5 billion eggs in 2025 to 18.57 billion eggs in 2026. Provinces on the island of Java, such as East Java, Central Java, and West Java, are expected to remain the main production centers. Meanwhile, provinces in eastern Indonesia show less stable prediction results, indicating the need for improved data quality and the application of more adaptive models. Overall, the ARIMA model is considered effective for modeling short-term trends, although it has limitations in handling data with high fluctuations.

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Published

2025-03-20

How to Cite

Khaswa Giovani Simanungkalit, Muhammad Fikri Azhari, Muhammad ihsan Raditya, Indra Lesmana Putra, & Victor Asido Elyakim P. (2025). Analysis of Egg Production Forecasting by Province in Indonesia Using the ARIMA Algorithm. JOMLAI: Journal of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, 4(1), 31–37. https://doi.org/10.55123/jomlai.v4i1.5765

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): Maret 2025

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2025 Khaswa Giovani Simanungkalit, Muhammad Fikri Azhari , Muhammad ihsan Raditya, Indra Lesmana Putra, Victor Asido Elyakim P

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